Nebius
Compute & inference infrastructure · https://nebius.com
Verdict: Buy · Confidence: high · Reviewed 2026-10-15
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is a public AI cloud. Per its Form 6-K shareholder materials for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, group revenue was $582.3 million, up 454 percent year over year, and Nebius AI cloud revenue was $574.9 million, about 98 percent of the group. ARR was $3.0 billion at June 30. Cost of revenues was 23 percent of revenue. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion of group revenue, $7 billion to $9 billion of ARR, about 40 percent adjusted EBITDA margin, and $20 billion to $25 billion of capital expenditure. The group also includes Avride and TripleTen, which are not the AI cloud.
Rubric
| Dimension | Score (1–5) | Notes & sources |
|---|---|---|
| Real customers & revenue quality Are there named paying customers, recurring revenue, and retention evidence? | 5/5 | Per the Form 6-K, Q2 2026 group revenue was $582.3 million and first-half revenue was $981.3 million. AI-cloud revenue was $574.9 million in the quarter. ARR, defined as last-month AI-cloud revenue times 12, was $3.0 billion at June 30, up from $1.9 billion at March 31.
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| Unit economics Do gross margins survive inference/compute costs? Is pricing durable? | 4/5 | Per the shareholder exhibit, Q2 2026 cost of revenues was 23 percent of revenue, down from 29 percent a year earlier, and the AI cloud business delivered a 50 percent adjusted EBITDA margin. Depreciation and amortization was 45 percent of revenue, so the cash and GAAP pictures differ. Full-year guidance calls for about a 40 percent group adjusted EBITDA margin.
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| Moat Proprietary data, distribution, switching costs, or tech that is hard to copy? | 4/5 | The 6-K describes a full-stack AI cloud with owned and leased data centers, sold-out capacity, and both on-demand and reserved contracts. Power and GPU capacity under contract are the moat. Capex guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion shows how much capital that moat requires.
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| Platform risk Could a model provider or incumbent ship this as a feature? (higher score = lower risk) | 3/5 | Nebius is an AI cloud, not a model lab and not a hyperscaler with a general software suite. Customers can move GPU workloads. The filed scale and reserved contracts make it more than a reseller, and they do not make it the only place to run a model.
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| Team & execution Shipping cadence, leadership track record, stability. | 4/5 | Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh presented the quarter and reaffirmed guidance. The company reported AI-cloud revenue up 514 percent year over year and said capacity sold out again. Execution risk is the capex plan, which management kept at $20 billion to $25 billion.
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| Funding vs. traction Is capital raised justified by verifiable traction? | 4/5 | ARR of $3.0 billion is filed, and guidance is $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end 2026. The matching capital plan is $20 billion to $25 billion of 2026 capex. Traction is visible, and the spend is large relative even to that ARR.
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| Hype signals Demo-driven marketing, vague metrics, valuation outrunning evidence? (higher score = fewer red flags) | 3/5 | Guidance asks investors to believe ARR more than doubles again in the second half, from $3.0 billion to $7 billion–$9 billion. The Q2 figures themselves are in an SEC exhibit. Avride and TripleTen are separate from the AI-cloud numbers.
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Listing source: https://nebius.com. Revenue, users, and valuation figures appear only when publicly sourced; otherwise they are marked unknown.